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This *is* urgent and needs to be handled right now, and I believe
Gavin has the best approach to this. I have heard Gavin's talks on
increasing the block size, and the two most persuasive points to me
were:<br>
<br>
(1) Blocks are essentially nearing "full" now. And by "full" he
means that the reliability of the network (from the average user
perspective) is about to be impacted in a very negative way (I
believe it was due to the inconsistent time between blocks). I
think Gavin said that his simulations showed 400 kB - 600 kB worth
of transactions per 10 min (approx 3-4 tps) is where things start to
behave poorly for certain classes of transactions. In other words,
we're very close to the effective limit in terms of maintaining the
current "standard of living", and with a year needed to raise the
block time this actually is urgent.<br>
<br>
(2) Leveraging fee pressure at 1MB to solve the problem is actually
really a bad idea. It's really bad while Bitcoin is still growing,
and relying on fee pressure at 1 MB severely impacts attractiveness
and adoption potential of Bitcoin (due to high fees and
unreliability). But more importantly, it ignores the fact that for
a 7 tps is pathetic for a global transaction system. It is a couple
orders of magnitude too low for any meaningful commercial activity
to occur. If we continue with a cap of 7 tps forever, Bitcoin <b>will</b>
fail. Or at best, it will fail to be useful for the vast majority
of the world (which probably leads to failure). We shouldn't be
talking about fee pressure until we hit 700 tps, which is probably
still too low. <br>
<br>
You can argue that side chains and payment channels could alleviate
this. But how far off are they? We're going to hit effective 1MB
limits long before we can leverage those in a meaningful way. Even
if everyone used them, getting a billion people onto the system just
can't happen even at 1 transaction per year per person to get into a
payment channel or move money between side chains.<br>
<br>
We get asked all the time by corporate clients about scalability. A
limit of 7 tps makes them uncomfortable that they are going to
invest all this time into a system that has no chance of handling
the economic activity that they expect it handle. We always assure
them that 7 tps is not the final answer. <br>
<br>
Satoshi didn't believe 1 MB blocks were the correct answer. I
personally think this is critical to Bitcoin's long term future.
And I'm not sure what else Gavin could've done to push this along in
a meaninful way.<br>
<br>
-Alan<br>
<br>
<br>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 05/07/2015 02:06 PM, Mike Hearn
wrote:<br>
</div>
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cite="mid:CANEZrP39jWHLF02z-81Z4+9X1vH5+hMuS=-3ED81=Q1o9U=DKw@mail.gmail.com"
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<div>I think you are rubbing against your own
presupposition that people must find and
alternative right now. Quite a lot here do not
believe there is any urgency, nor that there is an
immanent problem that has to be solved before the
sky falls in.</div>
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</div>
<div>I have explained why I believe there is some urgency,
whereby "some urgency" I mean, assuming it takes months to
implement, merge, test, release and for people to upgrade.</div>
<div><br>
</div>
<div>But if it makes you happy, imagine that this discussion
happens all over again next year and I ask the same
question.</div>
</div>
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