<html><head></head><body><div>CORRECTION: That's Paul Sztorc. Not Peter. Apologies for my abysmal proofreading.<br /><br /><div class="acompli_signature">--<br />MC</div><br /></div><br /><br /><br />
<div class="gmail_quote">On Tue, Aug 4, 2015 at 8:08 PM -0700, "Eric Lombrozo via bitcoin-dev" <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org" target="_blank">bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org</a>></span> wrote:<br />
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<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html charset=utf-8" />Rather than speculating on fake markets, why don’t we use theory, empirical data, and engineering to fix the damn problems?<div class=""><br class="" /><div><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div class="">On Aug 4, 2015, at 11:28 AM, Owen via bitcoin-dev <<a href="mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org" class="">bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org</a>> wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" /><div class=""><div class="">Given there is no money at stake in these prediction games, it is no surprise that the results are implausible.<br class="" /><br class="" /><div class="gmail_quote">On August 4, 2015 10:22:19 AM EDT, Anthony Towns via bitcoin-dev <<a href="mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org" class="">bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org</a>> wrote:<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding-left: 1ex;">
<div dir="ltr" class=""><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:monospace"><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif" class="">On 4 August 2015 at 01:22, Gavin Andresen via bitcoin-dev </span><span dir="ltr" style="font-family:arial,sans-serif" class=""><<a href="mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org" target="_blank" class="">bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org</a>></span><span style="font-family:arial,sans-serif" class=""> wrote:</span><br class="" /></div><div class="gmail_extra"><div class="gmail_quote"><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir="ltr" class=""><div class="">And the preliminary results of using a prediction market to try to wrestle with the tough tradeoffs looks roughly correct to me, too:</div><div class=""> <a href="https://blocksizedebate.com/" target="_blank" class="">https://blocksizedebate.com/</a></div></div></blockquote><div class=""><br class="" /></div><div class=""><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:monospace">The scicast prediction market is shutdown atm (since early July?) so those numbers aren't live. But...</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:monospace"><br class="" /></div><div class="gmail_default"><span style="font-family:monospace" class="">Network hash rate</span><br class="" /></div><div class="gmail_default"><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="font-family:monospace;white-space:pre"> </span><span style="font-family:monospace" class="">3,255.17 PH/s (same block size)</span></div><div class="gmail_default"><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="font-family:monospace;white-space:pre"> </span><span style="font-family:monospace" class="">5,032.64 PH/s (block size increase)</span><br class="" /></div><div class="gmail_default"><div class="gmail_default"><font face="monospace" class=""><br class="" /></font></div><div class="gmail_default"><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="font-family:monospace;white-space:pre"> </span><span style="font-family:monospace" class="">4,969.68 PH/s (no replace-by-fee)</span><br class="" /></div><div class="gmail_default"><font face="monospace" class=""><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>3,132.09 PH/s (replace-by-fee)</font></div><div class="gmail_default"><font face="monospace" class=""><br class="" /></font></div><div class="gmail_default"><font face="monospace" class="">Those numbers seem completely implausible: that's ~2.9-3.6 doublings of the current hashrate (< 400PH/s) in 17 months, when it's taken 12 months for the last doubling, and there's a block reward reduction due in that period too. (That might've been a reasonable prediction sometime in the past year, when doublings were slowing from once every ~45 days to once a year; it just doesn't seem a supportable prediction now)</font></div><div class="gmail_default"><font face="monospace" class=""><br class="" /></font></div><div class="gmail_default"><font face="monospace" class="">That the PH/s rate is higher with bigger blocks is surprising, but given that site also predicts USD/BTC will be $280 with no change but $555 with bigger blocks, so I assume that difference is mostly due to price. Also, 12.5btc at $555 each is about 23 btc at $300 each, so if that price increase is realistic, it would compensate for almost all of the block reward reduction.</font></div><div class=""><font face="monospace" class=""><br class="" /></font></div></div><div class="gmail_default"><font face="monospace" class="">Daily transaction volume</font></div><div class="gmail_default"><font face="monospace" class=""><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>168,438.22 tx/day (same block size)</font></div><div class="gmail_default"><font face="monospace" class=""><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="white-space:pre"> </span>193,773.08 tx/day (block size increase)</font></div><div class="gmail_default"><div class="gmail_default"><br class="" /></div><div class="gmail_default"><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="font-family:monospace;white-space:pre"> </span><span style="font-family:monospace" class="">192,603.80 tx/day (no replace-by-fee)</span></div><div class="gmail_default"><span class="Apple-tab-span" style="font-family:monospace;white-space:pre"> </span><span style="font-family:monospace" class="">168,406.73 tx/day (replace-by-fee)</span><br class="" /></div><div class="gmail_default"><span style="font-family:monospace" class=""><br class="" /></span></div><div class="gmail_default">That's only a 15% increase in transaction volume due to the block size increase; I would have expected more? 168k-194k tx/day is also only a 30%-50% increase in transaction volume from 130k tx/day currently. If that's really the case, then a 1.5MB-2MB max block size would probably be enough for the next two years...</div><div class=""><span style="font-family:monospace" class=""><br class="" /></span></div><div class=""><span style="font-family:monospace" class="">(Predicting that the node count will drop from ~5000 to ~1200 due to increasing block sizes seems quite an indictment as far as centralisation risks go; but given I'm not that convinced by the other predictions, I'm not sure I want to give that much weight to that one either)</span></div><div class=""><span style="font-family:monospace" class=""><br class="" /></span></div></div><div class="gmail_default"><font face="monospace" class="">Cheers,</font></div></div><div class="gmail_default"><font face="monospace" class="">aj</font></div><div class=""><br class="" /></div></div>-- <br class="" /><div class="gmail_signature">Anthony Towns <<a href="mailto:aj@erisian.com.au" target="_blank" class="">aj@erisian.com.au</a>></div>
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