[Bitcoin-development] Fwd: Block Size Increase Requirements

[Mike Hearn]

I'm OK with a smaller size + a formula that ramps it up over time. We are
far from having enough demand to fill 10MB blocks, let alone 20MB today.

To put it in perspective, to be feeling squeezed inside 10MB within two
years, we would need to double usage five times. I wish I knew a way to
make that happen. So the chances of us going to 20MB blocks full of real
transactions any time soon is close to zero short of some amazing killer
app that takes the world by storm (in which case: yay, nice problem to
have). As long as capacity significantly outpaces organic growth, we should
avoid problems.

The reason to pick 20MB then is merely one of expedience: we have to pick a
number, 20 is tested and seems to work, and we don't want to get caught by
surprise if demand does outstrip expectations.

Still, I question the underlying logic. We have no idea what connectivity
into China will look like a few years from now: it's seems to be a function
of politics rather than hardware trends. It might go down rather than up.
So 10 vs 20 feels a bit arbitrary. We can't let the Chinese government
dictate how Bitcoin is used, that would never be accepted by the rest of
the world. But if we optimistically assume things don't get worse, and 10
== more acceptance, then alright - it should make no difference in practice.
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