[Bitcoin-segwit2x] PROPOSAL: B0RG (Bitcoin zero replay, guarantee) - Ensuring a smooth 2X upgrade without a chain split

David A. Harding dave at dtrt.org
Tue Oct 24 17:00:27 UTC 2017

On Tue, Oct 24, 2017 at 09:27:37AM -0700, Erik Voorhees via Bitcoin-segwit2x wrote:
> So if you consider it from a $ revenue per day:
> - 1x finds 28.8 blocks per day (0.2x144) and earns 360 BTC1x, or $1.44m per
> day ($4,000 x 360)
> - 2x finds 115.2 blocks per day (0.8x144) and earns  1440 BTC2x, or $1.44m
> per day ($1,000 x 1,440)
> Am I missing something?

Umm, yeah.  2x did four times as much work to make the same amount of
money as 1x.  By, "work", I of course mean that they expended four times
as much electricity and tied up four times as much capital equipment.

Maybe this isn't obvious since you're treating 1x miners and 2x miners
as a group, but if you consider them as individual miners, it becomes
clear that there's a strong incentive to defect to the more profitable
chain.  For example:
         Average daily blocks | 1x potential revenue  | 2x potential revenue
Alice  |           5          |  5*12.5*4000 =   250k |  5*12.5*1000 =  62.5k
Bob    |          10          | 10*12.5*4000 =   500k | 10*12.5*1000 = 125.0k
Chalie |          25          | 25*12.5*4000 = 1,500k | 25*12.5*1000 = 312.5k

You can replace "average daily blocks" with "kiloWatt hours (kWh) plus
capital equipment depreciation costs" for a difficulty-neutral factor.

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