[Bitcoin-segwit2x] PROPOSAL: B0RG (Bitcoin zero replay, guarantee) - Ensuring a smooth 2X upgrade without a chain split

Emil Oldenburg emil at bitcoin.com
Tue Oct 24 16:37:51 UTC 2017


Another very important thing to keep in mind is that as soon as the fork
happens, the futures are not futures anymore. As soon as the fork
happens traders will have more markets to trade on and we will see a
quick price correction.


Emil Oldenburg, CTO
Emil at bitcoin.com
Visit the all new https://bitcoin.com
Wechat: emilold
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On 2017年10月25日 01:27, Erik Voorhees via Bitcoin-segwit2x wrote:
> I have a question for the group...
>
>
> "Given the market is showing that the 2x coin will be valued under 20%
> of bitcoin, miners acting in self interest will mine bitcoin and the
> 2x chain will freeze up, requiring subsidy to mine.” - Mo Adham
>
> -Let’s assume, immediately following the fork, 1x has 20% of hash
> power, and 2x has 80%  (as indicated by miner signaling)
> -Let’s assume also that the price, immediately following the fork, 1x
> is $4,000 and 2x is $1,000  (as indicated by futures)
>
> Most people see the above and think, “okay, soon after the fork the
> miners will switch back to 1x because price is higher.” 
>
> But, is it not the case that while price might be higher, block times
> are lower. So if you consider it from a $ revenue per day:
> - 1x finds 28.8 blocks per day (0.2x144) and earns 360 BTC1x, or
> $1.44m per day ($4,000 x 360) 
> - 2x finds 115.2 blocks per day (0.8x144) and earns  1440 BTC2x, or
> $1.44m per day ($1,000 x 1,440)
>
> In the above case, the revenue stream of both coins is equal, at
> $1.44m per day.  So even though one coin is priced higher, it doesn’t
> mean miners will necessarily choose that chain to mine.
>
> Am I missing something?
>
>
> Kind regards,
> -Erik Voorhees
> CEO ShapeShift AG
>
> On October 24, 2017 at 9:58:05 AM, Melvin Carvalho via
> Bitcoin-segwit2x (bitcoin-segwit2x at lists.linuxfoundation.org
> <mailto:bitcoin-segwit2x at lists.linuxfoundation.org>) wrote:
>
>>
>>
>> On 24 October 2017 at 17:47, Moe Adham via Bitcoin-segwit2x
>> <bitcoin-segwit2x at lists.linuxfoundation.org
>> <mailto:bitcoin-segwit2x at lists.linuxfoundation.org>> wrote:
>>
>>     Miners need to move their funds into exchanges to sell them. If
>>     they can't deposit coins to an exchange, they become valueless.
>>
>>     Assuming an 80-20 split, Block times for the minority chain spike
>>     to ~49.3 minutes and will remain that long for ~69 days. This
>>     would effectively block the minority chain's functionality as a
>>     payment system, as it will become increasingly impossible to
>>     deposit funds, or move them between exchanges (assuming
>>     transaction demand remains linear). Miners can prioritize their
>>     own transactions in blocks, but regular customers will be left
>>     out to dry.
>>
>>     I don't anyone should under-estimate the negative effects of this
>>     on market participants.
>>
>>     A lot of us have customers who expect bitcoin to just "work". If
>>     we start telling them they can't spend their money for several
>>     days/weeks, the choice of which chain is viable will quickly
>>     become clear. It will be neither Bitcoin1x or Bitcoin2x. It will
>>     be a different blockchain altogether.
>>
>>     (To be clear, Bitaccess is neutral on this fork, we just want
>>     customers to remain happy. They way this is going, that doesn't
>>     seem to be a likely outcome)
>>
>>
>> What typically happens is (shock horror) miners will mine in self
>> interest.  If you consider mining as a commodity, it makes sense that
>> they'll just go for the most profitable coin, and not act
>> altruistically, which was suggested in the original white paper.
>>
>> Mining is therefore common is a 0% / 100% until fees for a block make
>> it profitable to mine that block (cab take several days) or the
>> difficulty adjusts the profitability.
>>
>> This phenomenon is often referred to as "feast and famine".
>>
>> Given the market is showing that the 2x coin will be valued under 20%
>> of bitcoin, miners acting in self interest will mine bitcoin and the
>> 2x chain will freeze up, requiring subsidy to mine.  Such subsidies
>> could be added by creating a few transactions with high mining fees.
>>  
>>
>>
>>     --
>>     *Moe Adham, MSc, BEng **|* Co-Founder
>>     *
>>     *
>>     *bitaccess.co <http://www.bitaccess.co/>*
>>     Cell: _+1 858 877 3420 <tel:%28858%29%20877-3420>_  
>>
>>     On Tue, Oct 24, 2017 at 11:36 AM, Phillip Katete via
>>     Bitcoin-segwit2x <bitcoin-segwit2x at lists.linuxfoundation.org
>>     <mailto:bitcoin-segwit2x at lists.linuxfoundation.org>> wrote:
>>
>>         It is at this point that common sense needs to be applied.
>>         Even the most ardent anti SegWit2x upgrade individual would
>>         snap up the “airdrop” should there be 2 viable chains post
>>         Nov HF. That in itself is demand enough to have a market for
>>         both tokens. The flip side is that with an unusable chain, it
>>         matters not whether exchanges respond to user requests for
>>         listing as you won’t be able to move your tokens anyway.
>>
>>          
>>
>>         *From:* Samuel Reed via Bitcoin-segwit2x
>>         <mailto:bitcoin-segwit2x at lists.linuxfoundation.org>
>>         *Sent:* 24 October 2017 16:31
>>         *To:* Peter <mailto:dizzle at pointbiz.com>
>>         *Cc:* Bitcoin Segwit2x
>>         <mailto:bitcoin-segwit2x at lists.linuxfoundation.org>
>>         *Subject:* Re: [Bitcoin-segwit2x] PROPOSAL: B0RG (Bitcoin
>>         zero replay, guarantee) - Ensuring a smooth 2X upgrade
>>         without a chain split
>>
>>          
>>
>>         Another lesson to be learned from BCH is that incentives
>>         matter - where miners can sell coins depends on markets, and
>>         market prices depend on user and exchange support. Even if
>>         the 80% of miners signaling 2x at this time choose to go
>>         forward, if there are not viable markets willing to buy 2x
>>         coins at near 1x prices, 2x hash power will quickly revert to
>>         the old chain.
>>
>>         Peter wrote:
>>
>>              
>>
>>              
>>
>>             On Oct 24, 2017 10:58 AM, "Chris Stewart via
>>             Bitcoin-segwit2x"
>>             <bitcoin-segwit2x at lists.linuxfoundation.org
>>             <mailto:bitcoin-segwit2x at lists.linuxfoundation.org>> wrote:
>>
>>                 >RP that encourages a network split would render the NYA voidable
>>
>>                 Phillip, if there is consensus on one thing, it is
>>                 there is going to be a network split. Every exchange
>>                 is publishing policies for the chain split. Some even
>>                 saying that they will not support the segwit2x token.
>>
>>                 -Chris
>>
>>              
>>
>>             The technical lesson from the BCH fork was that 1 hash =
>>             1 vote. Nothing any exchange (or custodian) said
>>             mattered. Indeed because significant sha256 hashpower was
>>             deployed towards the fork it gained value and customers
>>             of exchanges pressured the exchanges into the financially
>>             sensible decision. 
>>
>>              
>>
>>             This proposal, SegWit2x, is for the miners to decide. 
>>
>>              
>>
>>             Transaction selection is not a consensus rule. Any miners
>>             that want to go against the Nakamoto signaling is free to
>>             do so and the responsible party (not the 2x devs who have
>>             no control over transaction selection). If because of the
>>             political climate some miner sees an economic opportunity
>>             to resurrect the legacy chain then they can modify their
>>             node (without consensus change) to listen to 2x blocks
>>             and not mine any transaction IDs found in the 2x chain. 
>>
>>              
>>
>>             Additionally, to complete a safe chain resurrection such
>>             a miner can airdrop the mining reward from the forked
>>             block (after 100 depth) and send it to to all addresses
>>             with UTXOs over $x value. So that users of the 1x chain
>>             can spend the combined UTXOs which cannot be replayed on
>>             2x, as a simple splitting solution. 
>>
>>              
>>
>>             Safety efforts which do not require consensus changes
>>             should be exhausted first before suggesting consensus
>>             changes. 
>>
>>              
>>
>>             Regards 
>>
>>             Peter
>>
>>              
>>
>>              
>>
>>          
>>
>>          
>>
>>
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>>
>>
>>
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